Scott Boras Talks About the New York Yankees Star's Opt-Out Option in 2024

 New York Yankees star pitcher Gerrit Cole secured his first-ever Cy Young award in a unanimous vote just last month, marking a significant milestone in the accomplished right-hander's career. The Yankees, on the other hand, are eager to make a comeback to the playoffs following their 82-80 performance in 2023. In a notable seven-player deal last week, the team traded away a considerable portion of its major league-ready pitching depth to acquire Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. While this trade strengthened the team's lineup, it also heightened their dependence on the 33-year-old Cole as they set their sights on the 2024 season. Although a resurgence from players like Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes could alleviate some pressure on Cole, the team's success in the upcoming season appears questionable without a repeat performance from the star pitcher.

Placing their bets on Cole seems like a prudent decision for the Yankees. Since joining the Astros in 2018 after a trade from the Pirates, Cole has consistently ranked at or near the top of various pitching leaderboards. His 28.5 fWAR over the past six seasons leads all MLB pitchers, and he boasts an impressive 1,076 2/3 innings pitched, a figure unmatched by any other hurler. Among starting pitchers in this timeframe, Cole's 2.93 ERA is surpassed only by Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler. Additionally, his 33.4% strikeout rate is second only to deGrom, Chris Sale, and Tyler Glasnow, while his 2.97 SIERA is exceeded only by deGrom and Sale. This combination of dominance and durability firmly establishes Cole as one of the premier starting pitchers in the current game.

As Cole embarks on the fifth year of his nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees, speculation arises about the opt-out clause he holds for the final four years of the deal. While entering free agency at the age of 34, it appears highly likely that Cole could secure a more lucrative deal on the open market, barring a disastrous 2024 campaign. However, the contract's complexity goes beyond Cole's individual decision on the opt-out. If Cole chooses to exercise his opt-out, the Yankees have the option to negate that decision by extending his contract for an additional year and $36 million. Effectively, this would offer him a one-year, $36 million extension, bringing the total value of his deal in the Bronx to $360 million over ten years.

Agent Scott Boras, representing Cole, has expressed his belief that this scenario is likely to unfold next year. According to Boras, both Cole opting out and the Yankees voiding that decision "are going to happen" in the upcoming offseason. This anticipation is grounded in the expectation that Cole can command a guarantee surpassing $144 million on the open market in the next season. For this to occur, the Yankees would need to decide against retaining Cole on what would essentially be a five-year, $180 million contract.

Assuming Cole delivers a performance in 2024 similar to his recent outings, such a deal would seem to be a fair market value for his exceptional services. Notably, Jacob deGrom secured a five-year, $185 million contract from the Rangers last winter as he entered his own age-35 campaign, despite pitching just 156 1/3 innings over the 2021-22 seasons. In contrast, Cole has already surpassed this two-year innings total before even throwing a pitch in 2024. While the $36 million average annual value of the deal would rank among the higher yearly salaries in the game, it aligns with the current compensation for Cole, and other teams have not shied away from offering substantial annual salaries to elite starting pitchers, even as they age. Examples of this are the contracts signed by Scherzer and Verlander with the Mets in the past two offseasons, both featuring average annual values north of $40 million and covering their late thirties and early forties.